SKU Backorder Risk Index (SXI)
SCORE + CORRELATE = IMPROVE
Current SXI Score
2.77
Current Backorder Rate
3.70%
Backorder Prediction Accuracy
99.16%
Target SXI Score
2.7
Target Backorder Rate
(20%) 2.96%
Backorder Prediction Precision
93.76%
Potential Business Improvements
Current Number of Backorder = 7400
Improvement
20% or 1480 less
Backorder
Improvement
50% or 3700 less
Backorder
Improvement
87.71% or 6491 less
Backorder
| Auto-ML | SXI | SXI++ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (%) | 94.42% | 97.10% | 99.16% |
| Precision (%) | 75.45% | 71.28% | 93.76% |
| AUC | 0.70 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| True Positives = 34500 | False Positives = 164 |
|---|---|
| False Negatives = 212 | True Negatives = 1198 |
| SKU ID | SXI Score | Actual Target | Predicted Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54180 | 1.878 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 39360 | 3.454 | Backorder | Backorder |
| 111555 | 1.011 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 87873 | 1.574 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 188016 | 2.241 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 765 | 4.119 | Backorder | Backorder |
| 144619 | 2.668 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 72646 | 1.287 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 166487 | 2.534 | Not a Backorder | Not a Backorder |
| 58934 | 3.789 | Backorder | Not a Backorder |
Current Backorder Decision Tree
Target Backorder Decision Tree
Sensitivity Analysis
| FEATURES | FORCAST_3_MONTH | SALES_9_MONTH | FORCAST_6_MONTH | FORCAST_9_MONTH | SALES_1_MONTH | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Values | 151.309 | 0.0 | 248.129125 | 412.1706667 | 41.336 | 0 (Not a Backorder) |
| Adjusted Values | 75.65 | 0.0 | 227.3 | 618.26 | 43.82 | 1 (Backorder) |
| Change in values (%) | -50 | 12 | -20 | 50 | 6 | - |
The target variable changed from Not a Backorder (Prediction in Actual Data) to Backorder (Prediction in Adjusted Data).
Deck Risk
Most Common: No
Stop Auto Buy
Most Common: Yes
Rev_Stop
Most Common: No