SKU Backorder Risk Index (SXI)

SCORE + CORRELATE = IMPROVE

Current SXI Score

2.77

Current Backorder Rate

3.70%

Backorder Prediction Accuracy

99.16%

Target SXI Score

2.7

Target Backorder Rate

(20%) 2.96%

Backorder Prediction Precision

93.76%

Potential Business Improvements

Current Number of Backorder = 7400

Improvement
20% or 1480 less
Backorder

Immediate Backorder Reduction

Improvement
50% or 3700 less
Backorder

Mid-Term Backorder Reduction

Improvement
87.71% or 6491 less
Backorder

Long-Term Backorder Reduction
Auto-ML SXI SXI++
Accuracy (%) 94.42% 97.10% 99.16%
Precision (%) 75.45% 71.28% 93.76%
AUC 0.70 0.96 0.99
True Positives = 34500 False Positives = 164
False Negatives = 212 True Negatives = 1198

Actual vs Prediction

SKU ID SXI Score Actual Target Predicted Target
54180 1.878 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
39360 3.454 Backorder Backorder
111555 1.011 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
87873 1.574 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
188016 2.241 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
765 4.119 Backorder Backorder
144619 2.668 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
72646 1.287 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
166487 2.534 Not a Backorder Not a Backorder
58934 3.789 Backorder Not a Backorder
Current Backorder Decision Tree
Target Backorder Decision Tree
Current Decision Tree Target Decision Tree
Likelihood of Backorder: Likelihood of Backorder:
  • Supplier performance in the last two semesters ≤ 0.01
  • Sales quantity for the prior nine months > 0.43.
  • Forecast sales for the prior three months > 0.36.
  • Supplier performance in the last two semesters ≤ 0.01
  • Sales quantity for the prior nine months > 0.51.
  • Forecast sales for the prior three months > 0.36.
Likelihood of Not a Backorder Likelihood of Not a Backorder
  • Supplier performance in the last two quarters ≤ 0.01
  • Sales quantity for the prior nine months ≤ 0.43.
  • Forecast sales for the prior three months < 0.23.
  • Supplier performance in the last two quarters ≤ 0.01
  • Sales quantity for the prior nine months ≤ 0.51.
  • Forecast sales for the prior three months < 0.28.

Sensitivity Analysis

FEATURES FORCAST_3_MONTH SALES_9_MONTH FORCAST_6_MONTH FORCAST_9_MONTH SALES_1_MONTH SXI PREDICTION
Actual Values 75.65 0.0 227.3 618.26 43.82 3.454 1 (Backorder)
Adjusted Values 151.309 0.0 248.129125 412.1706667 41.336 1.878 0 (Not a Backorder)
Weights 0.82 0.88 0.90 0.81 0.84 - -
Change in values (%)   50   -12   20   -50   -6   - 83.9 -
The target variable changed from Backorder (Prediction in Actual Data) to Not a Backorder (Prediction in Adjusted Data).
Deck Risk

Most Common: No

Stop Auto Buy

Most Common: Yes

Rev_Stop

Most Common: No

Lead Time

7.49 days